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Thursday, 18 January 2018

Market Insight - Dow, Dow Futures, Hangseng, SGX Nifty & Nikkei 19 Jan 17

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

US stocks fell on Thursday as investors assessed the possibility of the government shutting down at the end of the week.

Dow

 

Dow Futures

Hangseng

 

Nikkei

SGX Nifty

 

26017.8

25953.0

32178.2

23836.8

10827.0

-97.8

12.0

56.3

73.5

15.5

-0.37%

0.05%

0.18%

0.31%

0.14%


Asian stocks edged higher on Friday and were within reach of record highs, although losses on Wall Street slowed the advance, while worries over a possible U.S. government shutdown weighed on the dollar.

Market is expected to open on flattish note and likely to witness range bound session during the day.  
RBI hikes foreign investment limit in Healthcare Global to 100 % from 24 %earlier.
Alembic board to consider buyback of shares on Jan. 23.
Swan Energy approves raising of funds via QIP/ pvt placement to the tune of 1000cr
Tech Mahindra to acquire 17.5 %shares of Altiostar on a fully diluted basis.
Torrent Pharma acquires U.S.-based generic pharmaceuticals Bio-Pharma Inc.
Savita Oil Technologies to consider share buyback on Jan. 23.
The board of IL&FS Transportation Networks, part of the IL&FS Group, has given nod for issuance of masala bonds worth up to Rs 2,000 crore, besides USD-denominated bonds of up to $500 million.

Retail Research Desk - Biocon Concall Update has announced an exclusive agreement with Sanofi for development, manufacturing and commercialisation of biosimilar products. Under the agreement, Sanofi would market the product in US, Canada and EU regions and Biocon would market it in Rest of the World. Both the companies are would share the cost and profits equally. Other details like name and number of products are not disclosed. It’s a positive development for long term and nothing in immediate terms.

Retail Research Desk - DCB Bank Concall Update – Loan growth remains strong at 28% YoY (against 22% growth in FY17). NII grew by 20% while opex grew by 24% resulting in pre-provisioning profit growth of 12%. Provisions increased by 12% and thus profit was up by 11% at Rs. 57 Cr. NIM stood at 4.12% as against 4.04% QoQ & 3.95% YoY. Slippage ratio increased to 2.2% in a seasonally weak quarter against 1.8% QoQ. However, Q3FY17 slippage ratio was also at 2.2%. Management has guided for slippage ratio of 2-2.1%, GNPAs of less than 2.0% and NNPAs of less than 1.0% on a sustainable basis. Being predominantly into SME lending, the bank witnessed some pressure on the higher ticket SME loans (above Rs. 2 Cr) while the loans in the range of Rs. 40-50 Lacs which is the average ticket size for the bank, were stable. Cost/Income was at a four year high and is close to the peak at 62.3%. Although the bank has substantially slowed down the pace of branch addition to just 5 branches during the quarter as guided earlier, the branches added previously, being new, shall witness employee addition for around one more quarter. The bank believes it should exit Q4FY19 with cost/income of 55.0%. Over the long term, the bank has guided to increase the business per employee from ~Rs. 7 Cr to ~Rs. 13 Cr and is targeting to double its loan book within the next 3-3 ½ years. Given that operating expenses have peaked out, continued buoyancy in loan growth should result in strong operating leverage from FY19 onwards. Share is trading at 2.0x FY19 BV.

Change in rates will be applicable from January 25 GST reduced to Zero on transportation of goods from India to outside by air and sea Positive for Exported
GST on Diamonds and precious stones reduced to 0.25% from 3% positive for Jewelry Stocks
Drip, irrigation system-GST reduced to 12% from 18% positive for Jain Irrigation, EPC Ind
GST on admission to theme parks, water parks, joy rides reduced from 28% to 18% positive for Wandrela and Imagica

Institution Desk - UltraTech Cement- ACCUMULATE- 3QFY18 Result Update- Earnings Broadly In Line With Expectations: UltraTech Cement (UCL) reported a steady set of numbers for 3QFY18 and beat our revenue expectation on account of improvement in parameters like volume and price. Aggregate volume grew 35% (like-on-like ~15%) YoY contributed by acquisition of Jaypee Cement (JCL) assets and was above our expectation. Overall realisation was flat on YoY basis. Energy cost and high operating cost of JPA plants (~200 per tonne higher than that of UCL) contributed to cost inflation of 4% YoY. Effectively, EBITDA grew 14% YoY to Rs12.7bn (in line with our estimate). However, EBITDA/mt stood at ~Rs801, much lower than Rs949 in 3QFY17. However, higher interest costs and depreciation arising from the acquisition let to a decline in reported PAT to Rs 4.3bn compare to Rs5.7bn in 3QFY17, but adjusted PAT slipped to Rs3.3bn because of non-recurring income of Rs1.1bn. We believe that UCL’s focus on capacity creation through greenfield and brownfield expansions and implementation of cost-efficiency measures places the company in a better position. We have rolled forward our valuation of UCL based on FY20E earnings and valued the stock at 15.0x FY20E EV/EBITDA and FY20E EV/mt of US$180.Accordingly, we have retained our Accumulate rating on UCL with a revised target price of Rs4,203 (from Rs3,944 earlier).

Institution Desk - Yes Bank- BUY- 3QFY18 Result Update- Blips Don’t Mar Long-term Trajectory: Yes Bank (YBL) reported 3QFY18 results with the key strategic takeaways being that the bank is: (1) Witnessing strong traction in granular consumer loan book; (2) On course to deliver ~4% NIM before March 2020 (please see conference-call highlights). Per se, on the results front, YBL posted net interest income (NII) growth of 27% YoY to Rs18,888mn, PPOP growth of 38% YoY to Rs20,018 and PAT growth of 22% YoY to Rs10,769mn. We have marginally modified our legacy estimates for FY18/FY19 to reflect (compared with previous estimates) faster loan growth and lower yield on loans (among other changes). We have retained Buy rating on YBL, increasing our target price to Rs435 (from Rs429 earlier) and valuing the stock at 2.6x FY20E P/ABV.

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